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[pagetitle Paul's Backgammon Basics]
[gametitle Sample Game 1]
[sourcetype GNU match]
[playername1 Red]
[playername2 White]
[horizl][povplr2][povclrw]

[play][player1][title Introduction]
[posID 14HPwATDgc/ABMA]
[command steps]
[steps]
[step]clear::[/step]
[step]say::THE SAMPLE GAME The sample game that follows was played by two of the top 200 rated players on the FIBS server. 
 The game shows most of the features of backgammon, including hitting and doubling, the running game and the back game. 
 It's a relatively short game and, unlike many played by experts, is played out to a conclusion. 
The game has been analysed by GNU Backgammon at "Grandmaster" level, so you can compare the players' choices of moves with GNU's. 
 PRESS NEXT TO START THE GAME
[/step]
[/steps]
[/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 24HPwATDgc/ABMA]
[dice 21][move 13/11 24/23]
[precomment]White opens with the lowest possible dice roll. [demo]13/11 24/23[/demo] is one of the best options - it'll leave blots, but give white a better chance of building points later if she's not hit. Click on the yellow text in the Move Analysis table to see other possible 2 1 opening moves. Click 'Play' (below) to see what moves white plays.[/precomment]
[postcomment]White plays GNU's top-ranking choice of moves. This is called "splitting" play, because it splits the action between two parts of the board. The piece on 11 is now a 'builder' in white's outfield, there to help cover points in the crucial area from the 8-point inwards. 24 and 23 serve dual purposes - first, to give white a better chance of securing a 'high anchor' on red's 5 or 4 points (white's 21 or 20), and second, to entice red into making a risky hit (unlikely at this level). [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 21 (+0.143%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 24/23 13/11 MWC: 55.26%
 49.2% 13.6% 0.4% - 50.8% 13.6% 0.5%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 13/11 6/5 MWC: 55.10% ( -0.17%)
 48.9% 13.9% 0.5% - 51.1% 15.0% 1.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 24/21 MWC: 55.37% ( 0.11%)
 50.1% 12.7% 0.5% - 49.9% 13.2% 0.4%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 13/10 MWC: 55.35% ( 0.09%)
 49.7% 14.2% 0.6% - 50.3% 13.9% 0.6%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 24/23 24/22 MWC: 55.22% ( -0.04%)
 49.3% 12.4% 0.5% - 50.7% 13.3% 0.4%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 14HPwATDgc+QBKA]
[dice 23][move 13/11 24/21]
[precomment]2-3 isn't much better than 2-1. There is the option of playing [demo]13/8[/demo], but as the Moves Analysis table shows, the best choices statistically are splitting plays. Either way, there's no chance of covering a new point (i.e. getting two pieces onto it). TIP - When assessing a roll, the first thing to check is the difference between the two numbers rolled (e.g. 6-4 gives a difference of 2). If you have any pieces which are that number of points apart, you may be able to move them onto a single point and cover it (e.g. [demo]8/2 6/2[/demo] from this position. On your first roll of the game, you have no pieces one point apart, so a difference of one (2-3, 2-1) isn't going to cover anything.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Red's in the slightly better position here, with a builder for an advanced anchor on the 21-point. It's still early days though! [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 23 (-0.629%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 24/21 13/11 MWC: 43.77%
 46.3% 11.6% 0.3% - 53.7% 14.7% 0.6%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 24/22 13/10 MWC: 43.66% ( -0.11%)
 45.8% 11.8% 0.3% - 54.2% 15.6% 0.6%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 13/11 13/10 MWC: 43.95% ( 0.18%)
 46.9% 13.1% 0.5% - 53.1% 15.3% 0.8%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 24/22 24/21 MWC: 43.92% ( 0.15%)
 47.4% 11.1% 0.4% - 52.6% 14.7% 0.4%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 13/8 MWC: 43.79% ( 0.02%)
 46.5% 11.9% 0.4% - 53.5% 15.5% 0.6%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 44.42% (Money: -0.021)
 49.4% 13.2% 0.4% - 50.6% 13.9% 0.6%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 44.46%
2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 5.54%)
3. Double, take 42.56% ( -1.90%)
Proper cube action: No double, take (25.6%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 24HPkASjgc+QBIg]
[dice 24][move 8/4 6/4]
[precomment]This is better for white. 2-4 is one of the more useful opening rolls, offering the option of making the 4-point with [demo]8/4 6/4[/demo]. That option is still open here, with the bonus of a hit that leaves no blots. It's too good a chance to miss. [/precomment]
[postcomment]There wasn't really any choice here (note the whopping 7% gap in game-winning chance between this and the next play in the analysis table). A hit and a point secured in the home table. First blood to white! [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 24 (+1.075%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/4* 6/4 MWC: 57.23%
 57.5% 19.6% 1.0% - 42.5% 10.6% 0.3%
 2. Cubeful 0-ply 13/9 11/9 MWC: 55.52% ( -1.71%)
 50.5% 13.1% 0.4% - 49.5% 12.5% 0.3%
 3. Cubeful 0-ply 13/11 8/4* MWC: 55.37% ( -1.86%)
 49.9% 14.5% 0.7% - 50.1% 14.6% 0.6%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 13/11 MWC: 55.26% ( -1.97%)
 49.8% 11.9% 0.4% - 50.2% 13.6% 0.3%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 6/4* MWC: 55.13% ( -2.10%)
 49.2% 13.2% 0.7% - 50.8% 15.1% 0.6%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 55.84% (Money: +0.067)
 52.2% 14.2% 0.5% - 47.8% 11.9% 0.4%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 55.92%
2. Double, pass 60.84% ( 4.92%)
3. Double, take 54.16% ( -1.77%)
Proper cube action: No double, take (26.4%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 14HPkAVCYZ+QBKA]
[dice 51][move 25/24 13/8]
[precomment]Red has lost the 21-point she was hoping to build, and will have to use up a dice roll to get back on. She could play aggressively, with bar/20 and perhaps even 6/5 ([demo]25/20 6/5[/demo]), or she could choose the safer option. GNU's highest-rated move of [demo]bar/20 24/23[/demo] concentrates the action in white's home table, going for white's 5-point and moving the 24-point piece closer to it.[/precomment]
[postcomment]In fact red plays safe with GNU's second choice, covering the 24-point and playing GNU's favourite 13/8. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 51 (-0.436%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply bar/20 24/23 MWC: 41.89%
 39.0% 9.7% 0.4% - 61.0% 22.1% 1.1%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply bar/24 13/8 MWC: 41.88% ( -0.02%)
 38.4% 10.1% 0.3% - 61.6% 20.1% 1.2%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply bar/20 11/10 MWC: 42.11% ( 0.22%)
 40.4% 10.1% 0.4% - 59.6% 22.2% 1.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply bar/24 6/1* MWC: 42.07% ( 0.18%)
 39.7% 10.4% 0.4% - 60.3% 21.1% 1.5%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply bar/24 11/6 MWC: 41.92% ( 0.03%)
 38.9% 9.8% 0.3% - 61.1% 20.6% 1.1%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 43.00% (Money: -0.276)
 41.5% 10.3% 0.3% - 58.5% 20.1% 1.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 42.50%
2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 7.50%)
3. Double, take 39.53% ( -2.97%)
Proper cube action: No double, take (28.4%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2mGfkASjg88gBMA]
[dice 36][move 23/20 20/14]
[precomment]This roll gives white two good options - [demo]11/5 8/5[/demo] to cover her 5-point, and [demo]23/20 20/14[/demo] to escape a back piece and hit red. [/precomment]
[postcomment]White takes the aggressive option, and commits to a running game (for now, anyway).
 
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 36 (+0.898%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 23/14* MWC: 59.22%
 65.4% 22.3% 1.6% - 34.6% 8.9% 0.3%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 11/5 8/5 MWC: 58.32% ( -0.90%)
 61.4% 22.9% 1.4% - 38.6% 10.9% 0.4%
 3. Cubeful 0-ply 24/18 13/10 MWC: 56.75% ( -2.47%)
 56.7% 17.1% 1.2% - 43.3% 13.6% 0.5%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 24/15 MWC: 56.70% ( -2.52%)
 56.7% 15.9% 1.0% - 43.3% 13.0% 0.4%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/18 11/8 MWC: 56.59% ( -2.63%)
 55.9% 15.8% 1.0% - 44.1% 12.8% 0.3%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 57.13% (Money: +0.300)
 60.0% 19.7% 1.1% - 40.0% 10.4% 0.4%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 57.78%
2. Double, pass 60.84% ( 3.06%)
3. Double, take 57.10% ( -0.68%)
Proper cube action: No double, take (18.2%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 14PPgAFiYZ+QFIA]
[dice 34][move 25/22 22/18]
[precomment]With only two points blocked in white's home table, red stood an odds-on chance of getting straight off the bar. She has lost ground with this piece though. She'll have to come back on with the 3 (the 21-point is blocked), so her only choice is what to do with the 4.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Any 4 move would have left a blot. This one (on the 18 point) won't be too expensive if lost, and could win white's bar (7) point if red can cover it. This move was GNU's third choice in its simplest, 'Cubeless 0-ply' analysis. Taking possible cube play into account, and looking 3 ply (two pairs of dice rolls) ahead, GNU agrees with the human player. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 34 (-0.487%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply bar/18 MWC: 39.93%
 32.3% 7.7% 0.2% - 67.7% 23.8% 1.7%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply bar/22 24/20 MWC: 39.93% ( -0.01%)
 32.6% 7.9% 0.3% - 67.4% 24.7% 1.6%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply bar/22 13/9 MWC: 40.53% ( 0.60%)
 33.7% 8.4% 0.3% - 66.3% 22.5% 1.8%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply bar/22 8/4 MWC: 40.41% ( 0.48%)
 34.3% 8.3% 0.2% - 65.7% 24.5% 2.3%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 6/2 MWC: 39.78% ( -0.15%)
 32.3% 7.7% 0.2% - 67.7% 24.8% 2.2%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 42.01% (Money: -0.456)
 34.6% 8.9% 0.3% - 65.4% 22.4% 1.6%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 40.78%
2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 9.22%)
3. Double, take 37.14% ( -3.64%)
Proper cube action: No double, take (28.3%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2mGfkBSDg8+AgMA]
[command double 2]
[precomment]Aggressive play from white here, offering the cube after just three rounds of dice! She's only 18 ahead in the pip count, and while she does have a better home table and outfield, there's plenty of time left for Red's position to improve. [/precomment]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 58.08% (Money: +0.471)
 65.6% 22.8% 1.6% - 34.4% 8.1% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take 59.31%
2. Double, pass 60.84% ( 1.53%)
3. No double 59.18% ( -0.12%)
Proper cube action: Double, take
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 14PPgIDCYZ+QFIA]
[command take 2]
[precomment]Not surprisingly, Red takes the double. To pass, and forfeit the game, would basically have meant that she'd let white bully her off the table. Do that too often, and you'll get a reputation as a soft touch![/precomment][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2mGfkBSDg8+AgMA12]
[dice 41][move 11/7 7/6]
[precomment]Quite a few options here. [demo]14/10 11/10[/demo] would give white an outfield builder, while [demo]24/20 14/13[/demo] would advance white's back-man to a 'high anchor' position, and make her 14-point piece safe. The most valuable piece to protect right now, however, is the one on white's 11-point. This can be made safe and get a hit into the process, by either [demo]11/7 8/7[/demo] or [demo]11/7 7/6[/demo].[/precomment]
[postcomment]GNU favoured covering the important bar (7) point and risking the 8-point blot, but white prefers to play safe. Experts say that good backgammon players make their own luck, and here's an example. White may seem very lucky to have got yet another hit on red, but her previous moves had given her three direct shots onto her 7-point (from 13, 11 and 8) with a fourth indirect (two-move) shot from 14. Her seemingly risky play in leaving blots on 14 and 11 had, in fact, turned the crucial area between her 5 and 8 points into a shooting gallery for any red piece left unprotected. Spreading pieces out means that more of the possible rolls will work for you. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 41 (-0.216%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 11/7* 8/7 MWC: 59.47%
 65.9% 23.5% 1.7% - 34.1% 8.4% 0.3%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply 11/7*/6 MWC: 58.23% ( -1.24%)
 62.6% 21.5% 1.5% - 37.4% 9.1% 0.3%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 14/13 11/7* MWC: 58.84% ( -0.63%)
 64.6% 21.5% 1.4% - 35.4% 8.5% 0.2%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 14/10 8/7* MWC: 58.66% ( -0.81%)
 63.9% 23.2% 1.9% - 36.1% 10.0% 0.5%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 14/10 11/10 MWC: 58.46% ( -1.02%)
 64.7% 17.3% 0.8% - 35.3% 7.8% 0.1%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 14PPgAFiYz+AFIA12]
[dice 15][move 25/20 6/5]
[precomment]The bar is becoming familiar territory for red! 1 or 5 will get her back on, with the safe option [demo]25/24 13/8[/demo], leaving no blots after a fairly bruising few rolls.[/precomment]
[postcomment]In fact red chooses attacking play, which most good players would do at this stage of a game. It leaves her with builders on her own and her opponent's 5-points, the location often called the 'golden point' because of its importance in defending/attacking the home table. GNU suggested leaving three blots across white's home table. That's no doubt correct mathematically, but harder to do when you've just been knocked onto the bar twice! [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 15 (-0.540%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply bar/20 24/23 MWC: 40.78%
 34.1% 7.5% 0.2% - 65.9% 20.5% 1.0%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply bar/20 6/5 MWC: 40.47% ( -0.31%)
 35.1% 8.1% 0.2% - 64.9% 25.3% 2.5%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply bar/20 8/7 MWC: 40.78% ( 0.00%)
 35.6% 8.1% 0.3% - 64.4% 24.3% 2.2%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply bar/24 6/1* MWC: 40.20% ( -0.58%)
 33.6% 7.9% 0.2% - 66.4% 24.5% 2.0%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply bar/24 13/8 MWC: 40.01% ( -0.77%)
 32.8% 7.7% 0.2% - 67.2% 24.0% 1.9%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 39.36% (Money: -0.441)
 35.5% 8.7% 0.2% - 64.5% 22.4% 1.7%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 41.10%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 14.43%)
3. Double, take 32.25% ( -8.84%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (38.0%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2mM/gBSDQ8+CAMA12]
[dice 63][move 14/8 8/5]
[precomment]Players often fight to the (near) death over the 5-points, and white is probably not too pleased to see red making moves on both 5's.
 
 This roll doesn't give white too many options - she can't cover a new point from here - but she can do something about her 5-point.[/precomment]
[postcomment]This move is risky. Red will have two direct shots on white's five-point (from the bar and 1-point) plus a number of indirect shots (for example, if red throws 2-4, she can play 25/23 24/20).
 
 To win in backgammon, however, you have to take risks. Let's see what happens...
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 63 (-1.318%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 14/5* MWC: 58.28%
 61.7% 23.9% 2.2% - 38.3% 9.5% 0.3%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 24/21 14/8 MWC: 57.42% ( -0.86%)
 61.6% 17.3% 1.1% - 38.4% 9.5% 0.2%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 14/8 13/10 MWC: 56.62% ( -1.65%)
 58.5% 18.7% 1.1% - 41.5% 10.2% 0.3%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 14/8 6/3 MWC: 56.59% ( -1.68%)
 58.8% 18.1% 1.0% - 41.2% 10.7% 0.3%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 24/15 MWC: 56.47% ( -1.80%)
 59.5% 15.4% 0.9% - 40.5% 10.8% 0.3%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 10PPgAFhYn8EDIA12]
[dice 46]
[precomment]Disaster! Red throws the only two numbers that white has covered in her home table. Red has to 'dance' (sit out a turn without moving). 
 
 White's gamble has paid off, and the balance is shifting decisively in her favour.[/precomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 46 (-5.285%):
* Cannot move
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 39.83% (Money: -0.398)
 38.3% 9.5% 0.3% - 61.7% 24.0% 2.2%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 41.73%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 13.80%)
3. Double, take 33.93% ( -7.80%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (36.1%)
Alert: unlucky roll! (-5.285%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2WJ/BAyDQ8+AAWA12]
[dice 24][move 24/20 13/11]
[precomment]This roll doesn't let white cover her 5-point, or even move the piece from it to somewhere safe. [demo]6/4 8/4[/demo] would be pointless here, merely stacking up the already-covered 4-point while exposing a blot on the 8. However white can do something creative on the other side of the table...[/precomment]
[postcomment]The more of your opponent's pieces you can put on the bar, the better - each one sets them back in the race, and takes up at least one roll to get back on. This red was a "high value" piece, just 5 pips from home. Now it's 25 pips away. White has taken a risk, putting a second red piece on the bar to shoot at her 5-point. However this time red has to throw a 5 to hit her - there can be no indirect shots (e.g. 1 4 for bar/24/20), because she'll need both her numbers just get back on. Another important factor is that red's home table is wide open, so if white does get hit she's very likely to get straight back on. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 24 (-0.830%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 24/20* 13/11 MWC: 62.91%
 70.5% 36.0% 5.1% - 29.5% 5.1% 0.1%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 24/20* 6/4 MWC: 61.97% ( -0.94%)
 68.5% 33.7% 4.6% - 31.5% 5.6% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 24/20*/18 MWC: 61.93% ( -0.98%)
 68.8% 33.0% 4.4% - 31.2% 5.9% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 24/20* 5/3 MWC: 61.36% ( -1.54%)
 67.2% 32.5% 4.2% - 32.8% 6.1% 0.1%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20* 8/6 MWC: 60.64% ( -2.27%)
 65.4% 31.8% 4.2% - 34.6% 6.9% 0.2%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 14HlwAGxYn5EDAg12]
[dice 23][move 25/22 25/23]
[precomment]White's luck does hold, but red can at least get both her pieces back on. [/precomment]
[postcomment]No choices here for red - she has to use the two plays to get on, leaving two blots for white to hit. However white is likely to be more concerned about covering her 5-point, now that red has three direct shots at it.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 23 (-0.264%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 bar/22 MWC: 37.77%
 31.3% 5.2% 0.1% - 68.7% 35.0% 5.0%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 35.50% (Money: -0.769)
 29.6% 5.1% 0.1% - 70.4% 36.1% 5.2%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 37.10%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 18.43%)
3. Double, take 27.32% ( -9.78%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (34.7%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2WJ+RAwLgeXAANQ12]
[dice 16][move 6/5 20/14]
[precomment]The 1 makes it mission accomplished for white here, given that she has three spare pieces on her 6-point with which to cover the 5. The 6 is not so clear-cut. [demo]6/5 8/2[/demo] would be reckless, running the risk of a double hit if red then rolled 2-6 or 2-5 from the bar. [demo] 6/5 11/5[/demo] would be safe, although stacking three on the 5-point seems pointless. [demo]13/7 6/5[/demo] would be offering three direct shots to red next time.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Never forget the other half of the table! Again, GNU marked this move down in Cubless 0-ply analysis mode, but takes a different view with more thought (moral - use GNU's slower but more thorough analysis settings to make sure it gives you the best advice). These would be sound tactics even if there'd been other good moves available, because white is 59 pips ahead, so a running game (just try to get past your opponent, with no blocking tactics) is appropriate. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 16 (-0.109%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 20/14 6/5 MWC: 62.04%
 69.7% 31.2% 3.1% - 30.3% 4.2% 0.1%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 11/5 6/5 MWC: 62.03% ( -0.01%)
 67.8% 35.3% 4.4% - 32.2% 4.8% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2* 6/5 MWC: 62.37% ( 0.33%)
 68.6% 36.9% 5.7% - 31.4% 6.2% 0.2%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/7 6/5 MWC: 61.19% ( -0.85%)
 67.3% 31.8% 4.1% - 32.7% 6.6% 0.2%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 11/5 4/3* MWC: 60.28% ( -1.76%)
 65.0% 30.7% 4.2% - 35.0% 7.7% 0.2%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 14HlwADXYnpELAA12]
[dice 35][move 8/3 6/3]
[precomment]Red might like to get some of her pieces out of white's home table, but this roll doesn't help - only the 23-point piece will go (with [demo]23/18[/demo]), but even if she played 18/15 as well ([demo]23/18 18/15[/demo]), she'd still be the target of three direct shots from white. Her position is beginning to look messy, not least in her home table. With just one point covered, even if she hit white, white would probably come straight back on. This roll does at least let her do something about that.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Another good example of watching both sides of the board. The hot action's been happening on white's side, but red hasn't let herself become exclusively focussed on it. Here she takes the chance to do some home-table building which may pay big dividends if she can hit white later. (TIP - hit the replay button, and see how different the 'shape' of red's side of the board looks before and after this move. A player's overall position can change very quickly.) [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 35 (-1.440%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/3 6/3 MWC: 36.35%
 27.5% 3.7% 0.1% - 72.5% 36.6% 4.7%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 13/5 MWC: 35.29% ( -1.05%)
 26.9% 3.7% 0.1% - 73.1% 41.8% 7.3%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 23/15 MWC: 35.20% ( -1.15%)
 26.1% 2.9% 0.0% - 73.9% 40.7% 6.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 8/5 8/3 MWC: 35.00% ( -1.35%)
 27.6% 3.7% 0.1% - 72.4% 44.1% 9.6%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 13/10 8/3 MWC: 34.80% ( -1.55%)
 26.5% 3.6% 0.1% - 73.5% 43.6% 8.9%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 35.34% (Money: -0.786)
 26.6% 3.9% 0.1% - 73.4% 32.7% 3.1%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 36.72%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 18.81%)
3. Double, take 25.48% (-11.24%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (37.4%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 22J6RCwCMc3AANQ12]
[dice 13][move 6/3 3/2]
[precomment]Safety vs risky attack for white here. [demo]14/11 6/5[/demo] would be safe and build her outer table. She can't hit red without leaving a home-table blot, but she's 58 pips ahead so could afford a setback, especially with red's home table largely open. [/precomment]
[postcomment]Go for it! The deciding factor was probably the ability to send two of red's pieces to the bar, again removing the threat of an indirect hit. Even if red hits her, she may not get her other piece back on, giving white a chance to come back and start running for home. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 13 (+0.773%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 6/3*/2* MWC: 65.87%
 77.1% 42.9% 6.3% - 22.9% 3.5% 0.1%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 14/13 6/3* MWC: 64.61% ( -1.26%)
 75.7% 37.3% 4.8% - 24.3% 4.2% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 11/10 6/3* MWC: 64.25% ( -1.62%)
 74.7% 37.6% 4.9% - 25.3% 5.0% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 14/11 6/5 MWC: 63.91% ( -1.97%)
 75.3% 33.0% 2.8% - 24.7% 3.2% 0.1%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 6/5 6/3* MWC: 63.97% ( -1.91%)
 74.2% 37.1% 4.8% - 25.8% 5.3% 0.2%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1jHNwAGyynZELAA12]
[dice 35][move 25/22]
[precomment]It's not red's day, is it? Still, 5-6 would have been worse![/precomment]
[postcomment]A no-brainer - red has to come back on with the 3, but the 5's useless, leaving her stranded on the bar and unable to make any other move.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 35 (-0.528%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 MWC: 34.96%
 26.5% 3.2% 0.0% - 73.5% 43.8% 6.9%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 32.85% (Money: -0.998)
 23.0% 3.5% 0.1% - 77.0% 43.0% 6.3%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 34.13%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 21.40%)
3. Double, take 22.71% (-11.41%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (34.8%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2sp2RCwCMc3AAWQ12]
[dice 24][move 6/2 13/11]
[precomment]Top priority here has to be covering the 2-point, avoiding the risk of being hit, and making it even harder for red to get back on. [demo]6/2[/demo] will do that nicely, leaving the 2 to play.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Straightforward stuff - 14/12 wouldn't go, but 13/11 is good. Note the long line of neat, two-piece points along the lower half of the table. White's position is looking better by the minute. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 24 (-1.180%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 8/2 MWC: 64.19%
 71.6% 41.4% 6.5% - 28.4% 3.5% 0.1%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply 13/11 6/2 MWC: 63.99% ( -0.19%)
 71.5% 40.0% 5.9% - 28.5% 3.1% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 11/9 6/2 MWC: 65.32% ( 1.14%)
 75.1% 42.6% 6.3% - 24.9% 3.1% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 14/10 13/11 MWC: 64.37% ( 0.18%)
 74.4% 38.0% 5.0% - 25.6% 3.9% 0.1%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 13/9 11/9 MWC: 64.16% ( -0.03%)
 73.7% 38.2% 5.0% - 26.3% 4.1% 0.1%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1jHNwAFlmmzELAA12]
[dice 33][move 25/22 13/10 8/5 8/5]
[precomment]At last, some luck for red. Despite there being just two points open in white's home table, she's back on, and has three more 3's to play with. [/precomment]
[postcomment]Better late than never, red starts to build a solid home table. 
 
 The blots at 8 and 10 don't matter, of course, since white has no pieces behind them with which to hit. They're useful builders, too, increasing the range of rolls which which red could make another home table point next time.
 
 If red wants to win, though, she'll have to hit white soon. Otherwise white, with a 58-pip lead, will simply walk home.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 33 (+3.100%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply bar/22 13/10 8/5(2) MWC: 38.69%
 30.6% 4.1% 0.1% - 69.4% 26.2% 2.1%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply bar/22 8/5(3) MWC: 38.37% ( -0.32%)
 29.7% 4.0% 0.1% - 70.3% 26.7% 2.2%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply bar/22 13/7 8/5 MWC: 39.17% ( 0.48%)
 33.2% 3.8% 0.0% - 66.8% 27.3% 2.8%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply bar/22 13/4 MWC: 38.74% ( 0.06%)
 32.0% 3.5% 0.0% - 68.0% 27.8% 2.8%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply bar/22 13/10(2) 8/5 MWC: 38.67% ( -0.02%)
 34.1% 2.9% 0.0% - 65.9% 31.7% 4.3%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 33.29% (Money: -0.959)
 24.6% 2.8% 0.1% - 75.4% 42.0% 6.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 34.64%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 20.89%)
3. Double, take 23.64% (-11.00%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (34.5%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2ZpsxCwDMTmIAMw12]
[dice 51][move 14/9 9/8]
[precomment]Not too many good options here, but it does give white a chance to do something about that blot that's been sitting on her 14 point.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Job done, and both players with a safe table - for now. White's still got seven pieces to bring into her home table though, while red has to make the tricky decision of when to start getting those four pieces out of white's back yard. It's not over yet.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 51 (+0.118%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 14/8 MWC: 60.47%
 66.9% 24.5% 2.2% - 33.1% 3.8% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 14/13 11/6 MWC: 60.39% ( -0.08%)
 66.3% 25.4% 2.4% - 33.7% 4.2% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 11/10 11/6 MWC: 60.80% ( 0.32%)
 67.9% 27.3% 2.8% - 32.1% 6.2% 0.2%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 11/5 MWC: 60.62% ( 0.14%)
 67.3% 27.6% 2.8% - 32.7% 6.7% 0.2%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 14/9 11/10 MWC: 60.24% ( -0.23%)
 66.6% 27.1% 2.6% - 33.4% 7.5% 0.3%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1zE5iADNmm2MGAA12]
[dice 64][move 22/18 24/18]
[precomment]Lots of choices here. [demo]8/4 10/4[/demo] would close up another point in red's home table. [demo]13/7 13/9[/demo] would have builders strung out across red's outfield, ready to close up the home table even more. Or red can start running those back pieces out, although the options carry risks. [demo]22/18 22/16[/demo] would leave two blots in the white-outfield shooting gallery, while [demo]24/18 22/18[/demo] would leave two in the inner table.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Was this a mistake by red? She could have built her home table with this move, and may regret not having done so. Once you have four points covered in your home table, it becomes distinctly harder for your opponent to get back from the bar. A fourth home table point, plus two in white's home table, would have been a strong back-game position for red. Of the two escape-bid options, this is the better one. The 18-point (white's bar point) is made, and the blots are left in white's home table, where hitting them without covering them could cost white dearly. It's still a risk though - will it pay off? [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 64 (+0.018%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 10/4 8/4 MWC: 38.46%
 28.9% 4.0% 0.1% - 71.1% 24.3% 1.7%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply 24/18 22/18 MWC: 35.75% ( -2.72%)
 26.5% 4.9% 0.1% - 73.5% 42.7% 2.2%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 13/9 10/4 MWC: 38.94% ( 0.48%)
 32.0% 3.3% 0.0% - 68.0% 26.0% 2.6%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 13/7 8/4 MWC: 38.91% ( 0.45%)
 32.0% 3.2% 0.0% - 68.0% 26.1% 2.6%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 13/9 13/7 MWC: 38.90% ( 0.44%)
 30.8% 3.2% 0.0% - 69.2% 23.8% 1.9%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 37.08% (Money: -0.637)
 29.9% 4.0% 0.1% - 70.1% 25.5% 2.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 38.56%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 16.97%)
3. Double, take 27.96% (-10.60%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (38.5%)
Alert: very bad move (-2.715%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2ZptjBgDMTmIwJA12]
[dice 53][move 11/8 11/6]
[precomment]White can hit red ([demo]8/3[/demo]), but not without leaving a blot ([demo]8/3 6/3[/demo], [demo]8/3 11/8[/demo] etc). She's 54 pips ahead, with only two pieces left in red's half of the table. There's no need to take risks - just keep going and she's odd-on to win the game. [/precomment]
[postcomment]Only GNU's third choice, but this was still a good play for white. Moving from the 13-point would have meant leaving a blot. Instead she's safe, and the extra pieces on the 6 and 8 points might just give her a hit onto points 1 or 3.
 
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 53 (-0.544%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 8/3* 6/3 MWC: 62.23%
 68.0% 40.0% 3.0% - 32.0% 7.1% 0.2%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 11/6 8/5 MWC: 62.02% ( -0.21%)
 70.0% 32.4% 1.3% - 30.0% 4.7% 0.1%
* 3. Cubeful 3-ply 11/8 11/6 MWC: 61.55% ( -0.68%)
 69.5% 29.6% 0.9% - 30.5% 4.5% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 11/3* MWC: 63.54% ( 1.32%)
 71.3% 42.7% 2.9% - 28.7% 6.2% 0.2%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 8/5 8/3* MWC: 63.48% ( 1.25%)
 70.8% 43.8% 3.2% - 29.2% 6.9% 0.3%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1zE5iMCRmOw8GAA12]
[dice 23][move 24/22 10/7]
[precomment]A good roll for red - she can cover the 22 point ([demo]24/22[/demo]), and there are plenty of options for a 3 on her side of the table.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Red's now in a position to cause trouble for white, as white tries to bring her pieces home. Red can make good use of rolls over on her side of the table (perhaps with her 13 point cleared), while leaving the 18 and 22-point pieces there to threaten any white blots. It's important for red to fill her home table as much as possible in the next few plays, in order to have maximum impact if she does hit white. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 23 (+3.196%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 24/22 10/7 MWC: 39.75%
 30.9% 3.7% 0.0% - 69.1% 18.6% 0.4%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 24/22 8/5 MWC: 39.59% ( -0.16%)
 30.1% 3.7% 0.0% - 69.9% 18.0% 0.4%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 24/22 6/3 MWC: 40.45% ( 0.70%)
 32.9% 3.8% 0.0% - 67.1% 17.2% 0.4%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 24/22 13/10 MWC: 40.23% ( 0.48%)
 33.5% 4.0% 0.1% - 66.5% 20.8% 0.6%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/22 5/2 MWC: 39.75% ( 0.00%)
 30.8% 3.3% 0.1% - 69.2% 17.6% 0.5%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 35.53% (Money: -0.770)
 26.0% 3.3% 0.0% - 74.0% 31.5% 0.9%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 36.84%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 18.69%)
3. Double, take 25.25% (-11.59%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (38.3%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2ZjsPBgDMrmAwDA12]
[dice 36][move 8/5 8/2]
[precomment]White's problem pieces are her 13-pointers, and this roll doesn't help. The gap between 13 and 8 will have to be breached somehow, but not this time.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Safe play from white, but it's 'stripped' her 8 point back to the minimum-cover 2 pieces, making it that bit harder to stay safe. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 36 (-0.476%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/5 8/2 MWC: 59.68%
 67.0% 18.9% 0.3% - 33.0% 4.1% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 13/4 MWC: 58.85% ( -0.82%)
 63.7% 19.6% 0.6% - 36.3% 4.3% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2 4/1 MWC: 56.25% ( -3.42%)
 57.0% 17.5% 0.5% - 43.0% 8.4% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/10 8/2 MWC: 55.68% ( -3.99%)
 55.2% 17.7% 0.4% - 44.8% 8.8% 0.3%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2 5/2 MWC: 55.12% ( -4.55%)
 54.3% 15.1% 0.4% - 45.7% 9.5% 0.1%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1zK5gMAzO7gwGAA12]
[dice 11][move 6/5 5/4 8/7 7/6]
[precomment]It's a double, but not a great help. Red's in-combat pieces, on the 22, 18 and 13 points, are all blocked by adjacent whites. It won't even make her a point in her home table.[/precomment]
[postcomment]If red doesn't manage to hit white from her 18 point in the next couple of plays, then she'll need to get the 18 and 13-point pieces round to fill her home table up, with her last chance resting on hitting white from 22, and making it very hard for her to get back on. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 11 (+0.505%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 6/4(2) MWC: 40.86%
 36.0% 4.7% 0.1% - 64.0% 22.6% 0.7%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply 8/4 MWC: 40.77% ( -0.09%)
 35.4% 4.7% 0.1% - 64.6% 22.0% 0.5%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 8/7 6/4 5/4 MWC: 42.28% ( 1.42%)
 40.1% 5.4% 0.0% - 59.9% 20.6% 0.6%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 7/4 5/4 MWC: 42.25% ( 1.39%)
 39.9% 5.4% 0.1% - 60.1% 20.3% 0.7%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 7/4 6/5 MWC: 42.18% ( 1.32%)
 39.6% 5.3% 0.1% - 60.4% 19.9% 0.6%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 38.78% (Money: -0.492)
 33.0% 4.1% 0.0% - 67.0% 18.9% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 40.33%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 15.20%)
3. Double, take 30.25% (-10.08%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (39.9%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2zu4MBgCsXWAwDA12]
[dice 54][move 6/1 5/1]
[precomment]A double 4 would have been white's ideal roll here, but she didn't get it. As it is, bringing the 13-pointers down would leave a blot. With a lot to lose, a safer play is in order.[/precomment]
[postcomment]White's choice is safe - but also very productive. She now has five of her home table points covered, so red really can't afford to be hit. This will influence red's willingness to take risks as she escapes her pieces from white's side of the board. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 54 (+0.710%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 13/9 13/8 MWC: 59.13%
 63.9% 22.1% 0.8% - 36.1% 4.3% 0.1%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply 6/1 5/1 MWC: 56.23% ( -2.90%)
 55.7% 19.4% 0.4% - 44.3% 6.9% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 13/4 MWC: 57.35% ( -1.78%)
 57.8% 23.0% 0.9% - 42.2% 5.5% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 5/1 MWC: 57.68% ( -1.45%)
 59.1% 22.2% 0.5% - 40.9% 5.6% 0.1%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 8/4 6/1 MWC: 56.89% ( -2.24%)
 56.7% 23.7% 0.7% - 43.3% 7.8% 0.1%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1rF1gMAw72wwGAA12]
[dice 16][move 7/1 6/5]
[precomment]If only it had been 6 and anything bigger than 1 (e.g. 6 2 for [demo]13/7 13/11[/demo])! As it is, moving from 13 means leaving a blot, and with white's 5-point home table coverage that means a big risk for red.[/precomment]
[postcomment]GNU favoured risking a move from 13, but Red was too intimidated by that 5-point white home table. The result is an empty outfield (points 7 - 12), which will make it hard for red to get an early completion of her home table. Red still has two shots at covering a fourth home-table point next roll, but she'll have to leave a blot either way, or uncover another point. She desperately needs those 13 (and 18) pointers over there to fill the gaps. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 16 (-1.832%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 13/7 6/5 MWC: 40.04%
 35.3% 4.8% 0.1% - 64.7% 28.3% 0.5%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 13/7 5/4 MWC: 39.86% ( -0.18%)
 34.9% 4.6% 0.1% - 65.1% 28.5% 0.5%
* 3. Cubeful 3-ply 7/1 6/5 MWC: 38.87% ( -1.16%)
 29.7% 4.6% 0.1% - 70.3% 24.7% 0.4%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 7/1 5/4 MWC: 40.53% ( 0.49%)
 35.1% 5.1% 0.0% - 64.9% 23.6% 0.4%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 13/6 MWC: 40.44% ( 0.40%)
 36.3% 4.9% 0.0% - 63.7% 27.0% 0.5%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 40.10% (Money: -0.373)
 38.9% 5.7% 0.1% - 61.1% 20.6% 0.3%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 41.98%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 13.55%)
3. Double, take 33.82% ( -8.15%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (37.6%)
Alert: bad move (-1.162%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2O9sMBgBZN2AwDA12]
[dice 52][move 13/8 13/11]
[precomment]White's been waiting for a safe way to bring her 13-pointers home, but it hasn't come. Now she's faced with staying safe but uncovering her 6 point ([demo]6/1 6/4[/demo]) or playing [demo]13/8 13/11[/demo] and leaving a target for red to hit.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Throughout this game white has taken risks, and they've paid off (she hasn't yet been on the bar). Is she just lucky? Well, here she's left just one direct shot, plus an indirect one from 3 that's hard to roll because she has four of the intervening points covered. She's far less likely to be hit than red was when she was trying to get through white's bar point area. And if she does get hit, she's got shots at two blots in red's home table - with drastic consequences for red if she gets one. So it's a risk, but not a huge one, and with a potential upside (hitting red) if it goes wrong. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 52 (+1.059%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 13/11 13/8 MWC: 63.14%
 78.0% 21.6% 0.2% - 22.0% 2.6% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 13/6 MWC: 61.91% ( -1.22%)
 72.5% 25.0% 0.4% - 27.5% 3.5% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 0-ply 8/1 MWC: 58.46% ( -4.68%)
 61.8% 24.9% 0.4% - 38.2% 7.4% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 6/4 MWC: 56.72% ( -6.42%)
 56.6% 25.2% 0.4% - 43.4% 9.7% 0.3%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 6/4 6/1 MWC: 56.22% ( -6.92%)
 56.4% 18.8% 0.2% - 43.6% 8.2% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1WTdgMAw72xwBAA12]
[dice 33][move 13/10 10/7 7/4 13/10]
[precomment]No hit on white then, but double 3 does give red an unexpected good move. Can you see what it is?[/precomment]
[postcomment]An experienced player will instantly see 13 - 4 = 9, = three 3's (and that's without the help of printed point numbers!). Red certainly has, and covers another crucial home-table point.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 33 (-0.474%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 13/4 13/10 MWC: 37.59%
 22.2% 2.6% 0.0% - 77.8% 15.7% 0.1%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 13/4 5/2 MWC: 37.34% ( -0.24%)
 22.1% 2.9% 0.0% - 77.9% 18.0% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 13/7(2) MWC: 37.86% ( 0.27%)
 23.9% 1.7% 0.0% - 76.1% 16.5% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 13/1 MWC: 37.84% ( 0.26%)
 24.0% 1.7% 0.0% - 76.0% 16.7% 0.1%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 13/7 13/10 4/1 MWC: 37.60% ( 0.01%)
 23.1% 1.6% 0.0% - 76.9% 16.7% 0.1%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 35.82% (Money: -0.753)
 22.0% 2.6% 0.0% - 78.0% 21.7% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 36.86%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 18.66%)
3. Double, take 23.14% (-13.73%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (42.4%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2O9scAQDZbggwDA12]
[dice 46][move 11/5 8/4]
[precomment]The board has settled into a classic back-game position now. White is approaching the home straight, while red, 59 pips behind, has two men back in white's home table, hoping to hit any blots white is forced to leave. Red also has a blocking point (white's 7), waiting to trip white up while she's bearing pieces into her home table. 4-6 is a big help to white here, as it gets her 11-point piece safe and brings the spare 8-pointer home too.[/precomment]
[postcomment]That's right - any other play would have been seriously wrong. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 46 (+1.380%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply 11/5 8/4 MWC: 64.87%
 84.5% 20.1% 0.1% - 15.5% 1.4% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 0-ply 11/1 MWC: 62.62% ( -2.25%)
 78.2% 16.5% 0.1% - 21.8% 2.3% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 0-ply 11/5 6/2 MWC: 58.50% ( -6.37%)
 63.9% 17.1% 0.2% - 36.1% 5.2% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2 6/2 MWC: 51.01% (-13.87%)
 43.6% 14.8% 0.2% - 56.4% 18.0% 0.5%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 8/4 8/2 MWC: 50.83% (-14.05%)
 43.4% 17.2% 0.3% - 56.6% 20.1% 1.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 12W4IMAw7dzMAAA12]
[dice 56][move 18/12 18/13]
[precomment]Although a 6-1 next time would force white to leave a blot on red's 17, it's a very long shot. So there's no point in red leaving her 18-point pieces in place, when this roll gives her a chance to bring them round.[/precomment]
[postcomment]OK - the endgame begins, with red's 22-pointers waiting to pounce on a white blot.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 56 (+0.005%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 18/13 18/12 MWC: 37.09%
 19.7% 1.6% 0.0% - 80.3% 13.2% 0.2%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 18/7 MWC: 35.72% ( -1.38%)
 18.8% 1.8% 0.0% - 81.2% 23.6% 0.3%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 10/4 6/1 MWC: 35.53% ( -1.56%)
 17.3% 1.4% 0.0% - 82.7% 21.0% 0.2%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 18/13 10/4 MWC: 35.52% ( -1.58%)
 18.6% 1.8% 0.0% - 81.4% 24.3% 0.2%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 18/12 10/5 MWC: 35.39% ( -1.70%)
 18.0% 1.7% 0.0% - 82.0% 23.7% 0.2%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 35.45% (Money: -0.789)
 19.1% 2.4% 0.0% - 80.9% 19.4% 0.1%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 36.32%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 19.21%)
3. Double, take 21.06% (-15.25%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (44.3%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2O3czAADZbkgBDA12]
[dice 52][move 6/1 6/4]
[precomment]White's preference would be to bring the 8-point pieces into the home table, so that bearing-off can start. The 5 spoils that (8/3 won't go, so [demo]8/6[/demo] would leave a blot). Another safe play is called for.[/precomment]
[postcomment]6/1 was compulsory (6 was the only point that could move a 5), so 6/2 was effectively compulsory too. 5/1 or 8/4 would have been crazy. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 52 (-1.260%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 6/4 6/1 MWC: 61.93%
 78.4% 9.5% 0.0% - 21.6% 2.0% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 8/1 MWC: 60.54% ( -1.39%)
 71.8% 14.7% 0.6% - 28.2% 2.7% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 4/2 MWC: 56.23% ( -5.70%)
 59.1% 8.9% 0.1% - 40.9% 5.7% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 12W5IAQx33jEAAA12]
[dice 61][move 13/7 12/11]
[precomment]Nothing particularly valuable (such as covering the 1-point) is available here, and there's certainly no value in covering the 12-point ([demo]13/12[/demo]). It's too early to bring one of the 22-pointers out ([demo]22/16[/demo]) - white has too many pieces left in front of it, and is too likely to be able to hit the remaining blot safely. [/precomment]
[postcomment]Red's objective now is to cover her home table as quickly as possible, in the hope that she'll be able to hit white from her 22-point then keep her 'dancing' on the bar. This move loads Red's outfield (points 7 to 12) with pieces ready to bring in and cover her remaining home table points (1 and 2). [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 61 (-0.110%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 13/7 10/9 MWC: 38.25%
 22.1% 1.5% 0.0% - 77.9% 9.3% 0.1%
* 2. Cubeful 3-ply 13/7 12/11 MWC: 38.13% ( -0.13%)
 21.8% 1.5% 0.0% - 78.2% 9.7% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 13/6 MWC: 38.21% ( -0.04%)
 22.0% 1.4% 0.0% - 78.0% 9.1% 0.1%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 12/6 10/9 MWC: 38.18% ( -0.07%)
 22.0% 1.3% 0.0% - 78.0% 9.3% 0.1%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 13/7 5/4 MWC: 38.17% ( -0.09%)
 22.3% 1.4% 0.0% - 77.7% 10.3% 0.1%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 37.15% (Money: -0.644)
 21.7% 2.0% 0.0% - 78.3% 9.7% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 38.07%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 17.46%)
3. Double, take 21.81% (-16.27%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (48.2%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2d94xAADZblEADA12]
[dice 66][move 8/2 8/2 5/0 5/0]
[precomment]Double 6, the biggest roll on the board and one that will take white straight into bearing-off - but there's a sting in the tail. In backgammon you must use the numbers rolled if legally possible, even if it's to your disadvantage. Here, white will have to play [demo]8/2 8/2[/demo] (her only available 6 moves). Then, under the 'use the highest point' rule, she'll have to use her other two 6's to bear off two pieces from her 5-point.[/precomment]
[postcomment]White has been forced to leave a blot on her 5 point. Red's back game could pay off now - all she needs is a 2 to hit white with... [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 66 (+0.051%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2(2) 5/off(2) MWC: 62.08%
 72.9% 21.5% 0.0% - 27.1% 0.0% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 12W5RAAz3eQEAAA12]
[dice 43][move 10/6 11/8]
[precomment]A double 2 would have been ideal for red here, letting her hit white, cover the 20 point and make her own 1-point safe ([demo]22/20 22/20 5/3 3/1[/demo]). That's the problem with the back game though - you need the luck as well as the position! As it is, 4-3 doesn't do anything for red on the lower side of the table. There are more possibilities on her side though, including [demo]5/1 10/7[/demo] to cover her 1 and 7 (bar) points. [/precomment]
[postcomment]In fact red keeps her pieces back, hoping to close her home table completely using the spare pieces on points 5 to 8. A hit on white then, and the game would be transformed. Time's running out for red now though. She's very likely to lose, and needs to be thinking about saving the gammon (or even backgammon, if things go badly wrong for her). Deciding when to abandon a back game and minimise the points loss is a key skill of the game. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 43 (-6.386%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 11/8 10/6 MWC: 31.90%
 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.1% 28.6% 0.1%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 10/6 7/4 MWC: 31.53% ( -0.37%)
 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.2% 31.3% 0.1%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 22/19 10/6 MWC: 31.54% ( -0.36%)
 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.9% 29.8% 0.2%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 22/15 MWC: 31.47% ( -0.44%)
 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.8% 30.4% 0.2%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 10/6 5/2 MWC: 31.38% ( -0.53%)
 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.7% 33.7% 0.2%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 37.07% (Money: -0.639)
 28.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.8% 20.1% 0.1%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 38.61%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 16.91%)
3. Double, take 28.92% ( -9.69%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (36.4%)
Alert: unlucky roll! (-6.386%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 293kBAEC2uwIAAw12]
[dice 12][move 5/4 2/0]
[precomment]This roll takes white's 5-point piece to safety and gets a piece off. Something bigger might have sent both pieces off, but 2-2 would have left the 5-pointer stranded, so white has something to be grateful for![/precomment]
[postcomment]Straightforward stuff. White has a slightly awkward odd number of pieces to get off the 4-point and past red now, but that shouldn't be too big a problem. Anyway, red needs to think seriously about getting out of there soon.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 12 (-0.439%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 5/4 2/off MWC: 67.74%
 94.4% 20.6% 0.0% - 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 5/2 MWC: 67.21% ( -0.53%)
 95.1% 14.5% 0.0% - 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 0-ply 2/off 1/off MWC: 62.64% ( -5.10%)
 74.6% 22.5% 0.1% - 25.4% 0.0% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 2/1 2/off MWC: 61.65% ( -6.09%)
 73.5% 16.5% 0.0% - 26.5% 0.0% 0.0%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 4/2 1/off MWC: 61.15% ( -6.59%)
 71.6% 16.5% 0.0% - 28.4% 0.0% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 12e4KAAz3fAAAAA12]
[dice 55][move 22/17 17/12 12/7 7/2]
[precomment]A big roll - just what red needed right now. The question is, will she effectively concede defeat, get both pieces off the 22 point and run to avoid the gammon [demo]22/17 22/17 17/12 17/12[/demo]), or will she hang on in there in a last-ditch attempt to hit white?[/precomment]
[postcomment]This is called "hedging your bets", although it's also a good move. Red has two pieces right next to her home table, which won't take long to bring in for a gammon-saving bearing-off. Meanwhile her lone 22-pointer still poses a threat to white. If it gets hit, there will be at least two points (20 and 19) for her to aim for from the bar, plus, perhaps, a blot on 22. Double 4 would be red's ideal roll for white next turn, forcing white to play 4/0 four times and leave a blot - but will she get it? [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 55 (+1.607%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 22/2 MWC: 34.07%
 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.3% 5.7% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 22/7 8/3 MWC: 33.90% ( -0.17%)
 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 95.2% 5.4% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 22/12 8/3 7/2 MWC: 33.76% ( -0.31%)
 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.7% 7.5% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 22/7 6/1 MWC: 33.62% ( -0.45%)
 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.9% 8.2% 0.0%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 22/12 7/2 6/1 MWC: 33.55% ( -0.51%)
 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.1% 10.4% 0.0%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 32.01% (Money: -1.094)
 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.4% 20.6% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 32.26%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 23.27%)
3. Double, take 18.32% (-13.94%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (37.5%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 293wAAKC2uwIAAQ12]
[dice 45][move 4/0 4/0]
[precomment]White almost produced red's dream roll of 4-4 (which would have forced her to leave a blot) - but not quite. Instead it's plain sailing for white this time round.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Remember the bearing-off rule - if you roll a number greater than the highest point on which you have pieces, then you bear off from the highest piece-bearing point. Here, white plays the 4 as 4/0 (as you'd expect), but because she doesn't have any pieces on 5 or higher, she plays the 5 as 4/0 too. If she'd had a piece on the 6 point, then she'd have had to play 6/1 instead. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 45 (+0.215%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply 4/off(2) MWC: 66.05%
 95.3% 4.6% 0.0% - 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1td0VAAj3HAAAAA12]
[dice 21][move 7/5 5/4]
[precomment]An unhelpful roll for red. Anything between 4 and 6 would have helped her to cover her 1 and 2 points (e.g. 6 5 for [demo]8/2 6/1[/demo]), but instead she throws the lowest roll on the table. Sometimes backgammon is a cruel game![/precomment]
[postcomment]Red's still playing for position here, keeping the 8-pointer back to maximise her chances of covering 1 or 2 next time, instead of playing 7/6 8/6 (GNU's top choice) and getting both outfielders safely into the home table. She's guessing that with white still having 10 pieces to bear off, there's plenty of time left to save the gammon. It's a risky strategy though - a couple of big doubles for white could change things dramatically. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 21 (-0.104%):
 1. Cubeful 3-ply 8/6 7/6 MWC: 33.95%
 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.3% 6.8% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 8/6 5/4 MWC: 33.79% ( -0.16%)
 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.8% 9.3% 0.0%
* 3. Cubeful 3-ply 7/4 MWC: 33.61% ( -0.34%)
 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.5% 11.3% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 8/6 3/2 MWC: 33.80% ( -0.15%)
 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.9% 9.0% 0.0%
 5. Cubeful 2-ply 8/5 MWC: 33.79% ( -0.16%)
 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.0% 8.9% 0.0%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 34.05% (Money: -0.925)
 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.4% 5.6% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 34.32%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 21.21%)
3. Double, take 20.95% (-13.36%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (38.6%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 29xwAAKjdnQBAAA12]
[dice 13][move 4/3 3/0]
[precomment]A great throw for white - although just why might not be immediately obvious. Can you see it?[/precomment]
[postcomment]Hitting and running with a single piece isn't the most obvious of techniques (we tend to think about capturing points, not immediately relinquishing them). However it's one good players use often. White doesn't want to keep red off the board now - in fact she wants her to come straight back on, but onto the 5 or 6 point. That would effectively end the game, since red would be in front of all white's pieces, with no prospect of hitting her again. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 13 (+1.561%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 4/3*/off MWC: 67.90%
 98.3% 13.3% 0.1% - 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 4/off MWC: 66.98% ( -0.92%)
 99.5% 3.1% 0.0% - 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 4/1 2/1 MWC: 66.48% ( -1.42%)
 96.5% 5.5% 0.0% - 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 0-ply 4/3* 4/1 MWC: 56.27% (-11.63%)
 58.4% 4.3% 0.0% - 41.6% 0.0% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1tbsTAED3DAAAAA12]
[dice 56][move 25/19 19/14]
[precomment]It's payday for white - red must come back on with the 5 or 6, putting her in front of all white's pieces. [/precomment]
[postcomment]This is now called a "non-contact position", where the players have completely passed each other and there is no prospect of further hitting. It's now almost entirely down to the dice, and with white 57 pips ahead and (more importantly) six pieces already off, she's a virtual certainty to win. Red plays correctly by running her back piece for home (rather than getting the 8-pointer into the home table). The backgammon is saved, and with white needing to clear 9 more pieces, red has a good chance of saving the gammon too (remember she only needs to bear one piece off to save it). [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 56 (+1.176%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply bar/14 MWC: 33.03%
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 2.0% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply bar/19 8/3 MWC: 32.77% ( -0.26%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 4.1% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply bar/20 8/2 MWC: 32.62% ( -0.42%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 5.4% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply bar/19 6/1 MWC: 32.22% ( -0.81%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 8.7% 0.0%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 32.02% (Money: -1.099)
 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 98.2% 13.4% 0.1%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 32.11%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 23.42%)
3. Double, take 18.77% (-13.33%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (36.3%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 29wwAANTuTiAAAA12]
[dice 32][move 4/1 2/0]
[precomment]This roll will only send one piece off for white (remember - the 3 can't be used to bear a 2 or 1 off, but instead must be played from the higher occupied point, i.e. [demo]4/1[/demo]). [/precomment]
[postcomment]White's got plenty of rolls to spare for a win, but two pieces off now would have increased her chances of winning a gammon. Technically red could still win, but she'd need three big doubles in her next four rolls, with white throwing no doubles at all. It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened! [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 32 (-0.130%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 4/1 2/off MWC: 66.78%
 100.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 4/2 4/1 MWC: 66.73% ( -0.06%)
 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1tbsTCADvBAAAAA12]
[dice 56][move 14/8 8/3]
[precomment]Another decent roll for red (she's getting them at last). [/precomment]
[postcomment]With no realistic chance of winning, red's sole objective now is to save the gammon. This move means the gammon can definitely be saved next time, even if red rolls 2 1. That might not seem important, since white still has 8 pieces left, but the situation can change quickly in backgammon! [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 56 (+0.059%):
* 1. Cubeful 3-ply 14/3 MWC: 33.27%
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 3-ply 14/9 8/2 MWC: 33.26% ( -0.01%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.1% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 14/8 6/1 MWC: 33.13% ( -0.14%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 1.2% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2 6/1 MWC: 32.94% ( -0.34%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 2.7% 0.0%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 33.18% (Money: -1.008)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 33.18%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 22.35%)
3. Double, take 20.90% (-12.28%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (35.5%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 27wQAAOruTgAAAA12]
[dice 66][move 4/0 2/0 2/0 2/0]
[precomment]A wake-up call for red! Doubles have a big impact during the bearing-off phase. This double six puts makes the win certain, and puts white potentially within one roll of victory.[/precomment]
[postcomment]It's action stations on red's side of the board. Any double for white next time will end the game, so red has to bear off next roll to be sure to avoid the gammon. Luckily she's certain to do so, but it's surprising how many players (especially computers) fiddle with the arrangement of their home tables while their opponent burns ahead to a gammon win. [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 66 (+0.149%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply 4/off 2/off(3) MWC: 66.90%
 100.0% 1.4% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player1]
[posID 1dXcnAAAPAAAAAA12]
[dice 35][move 8/3 3/0]
[precomment]Any roll would have saved the gammon for red, but this one makes it comfortable.[/precomment]
[postcomment]Wisely, red gets a piece off the board at the earliest opportunity, saving the gammon. She's about to find out just how wise a move that was.
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 35 (+0.000%):
* 1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/off MWC: 33.27%
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 2. Cubeful 2-ply 6/3 6/1 MWC: 31.24% ( -2.03%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 16.7% 0.0%
 3. Cubeful 2-ply 6/1 4/1 MWC: 31.24% ( -2.03%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 16.7% 0.0%
 4. Cubeful 2-ply 6/1 5/2 MWC: 31.24% ( -2.03%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 16.7% 0.0%
 5. Cubeful 0-ply 8/3 5/2 MWC: 31.24% ( -2.03%)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 16.7% 0.0%
[/analysemove]
[analysecube]
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 33.27% (Money: -1.000)
 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 33.27%
2. Double, pass 55.53% ( 22.26%)
3. Double, take 21.06% (-12.21%)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (35.4%)
[/analysecube][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2DwAAoO7uAAAAAA12]
[dice 66][move 1/0 1/0 1/0 1/0]
[precomment]A second consecutive double 6 seals a solid win for white. [/precomment]
[postcomment]In the end red saved the gammon by the skin of her teeth. It was a conscious choice to play it close, given that she held back for a long time hoping for a hit, but white's late doubles made it closer than red might have wanted.
 
 [/postcomment]
[analysemove]
Rolled 66 (+0.000%):
* 1. Cubeful 0-ply 1/off(4) MWC: 66.73%
 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
[/analysemove][/play]
[play][player2]
[posID 2AAAA6u4OAAAAAA12]
[command wins 2 points]
[precomment]In backgammon you need luck as well as skill. Technically, both players hardly put a foot wrong in this game, playing GNU's highest-ranking moves almost every time. However the dice went against red, and she ended up losing by a clear margin, and only just saving a gammon. At expert level (like these players), being successful is largely about not making mistakes. Had either player made the 'wrong' move a couple of times, the result could have been very different.[/precomment][/play]